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Collier, FL · ZIP 34103 · Census Tract 12021010300 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$464K
Downside (P10)
$389K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$472K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$610K
+31% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +31%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $171K | $205K | $233K | $282K | $300K | $306K | $304K | $345K | $406K | $455K | $464K | $460K | $467K | $472K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$293,648 | -$259,948 | -$231,348 | -$182,548 | -$164,148 | -$158,748 | -$160,348 | -$119,548 | -$58,348 | -$9,148 | -$4,766 | +$2,730 | +$7,811 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -63.2% | -56.0% | -49.8% | -39.3% | -35.3% | -34.2% | -34.5% | -25.7% | -12.6% | -2.0% | -1.0% | +0.6% | +1.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $399K | $403K | $389K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $534K | $591K | $610K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$399K to $534K
29.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$389K to $610K
46.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naples · 34103 · (Tract 103) | $467K | $472K | +1.1% | |
| Naples (Tract 010112) | $462K | $523K | +13.2% | |
| Golden Gate | $462K | $500K | +8.3% | |
| Naples (Tract 010429) | $469K | $508K | +8.2% | |
| Naples (Tract 010517) | $467K | $504K | +7.9% | |
| Immokalee | $466K | $496K | +6.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naples · 34103 · (Tract 103) | $467K | $472K | +1.1% | |
| Naples (Tract 000500) | $2.11M | $2.50M | +18.5% | |
| Naples (Tract 010428) | $441K | $517K | +17.2% | |
| Everglades | $796K | $932K | +17.0% | |
| Naples (Tract 010513) | $481K | $562K | +16.9% | |
| Marco Island | $881K | $1.02M | +15.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naples · 34103 · (Tract 103) | $467K | $472K | $221K | |
| Naples | $231K | $262K | $133K | |
| Everglades | $216K | $228K | $117K | |
| Immokalee (Tract 011305) | $186K | $200K | $116K | |
| Immokalee (Tract 011306) | $204K | $221K | $113K | |
| Immokalee (Tract 011204) | $221K | $232K | $102K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Collier, FL · ZIP 34103 · Census Tract 12021010300 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$464K
Downside (P10)
$389K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$472K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$610K
+31% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +31%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $171K | $205K | $233K | $282K | $300K | $306K | $304K | $345K | $406K | $455K | $464K | $460K | $467K | $472K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$293,648 | -$259,948 | -$231,348 | -$182,548 | -$164,148 | -$158,748 | -$160,348 | -$119,548 | -$58,348 | -$9,148 | -$4,766 | +$2,730 | +$7,811 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -63.2% | -56.0% | -49.8% | -39.3% | -35.3% | -34.2% | -34.5% | -25.7% | -12.6% | -2.0% | -1.0% | +0.6% | +1.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $399K | $403K | $389K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $534K | $591K | $610K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$399K to $534K
29.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$389K to $610K
46.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naples · 34103 · (Tract 103) | $467K | $472K | +1.1% | |
| Naples (Tract 010112) | $462K | $523K | +13.2% | |
| Golden Gate | $462K | $500K | +8.3% | |
| Naples (Tract 010429) | $469K | $508K | +8.2% | |
| Naples (Tract 010517) | $467K | $504K | +7.9% | |
| Immokalee | $466K | $496K | +6.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naples · 34103 · (Tract 103) | $467K | $472K | +1.1% | |
| Naples (Tract 000500) | $2.11M | $2.50M | +18.5% | |
| Naples (Tract 010428) | $441K | $517K | +17.2% | |
| Everglades | $796K | $932K | +17.0% | |
| Naples (Tract 010513) | $481K | $562K | +16.9% | |
| Marco Island | $881K | $1.02M | +15.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naples · 34103 · (Tract 103) | $467K | $472K | $221K | |
| Naples | $231K | $262K | $133K | |
| Everglades | $216K | $228K | $117K | |
| Immokalee (Tract 011305) | $186K | $200K | $116K | |
| Immokalee (Tract 011306) | $204K | $221K | $113K | |
| Immokalee (Tract 011204) | $221K | $232K | $102K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
