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Bay, FL · ZIP 32413 · Census Tract 12005002709 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$413K
Downside (P10)
$367K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$428K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$657K
+59% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +59%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $253K | $270K | $333K | $388K | $390K | $413K | $415K | $427K | $428K |
| YoY Change | +6.8% | +23.3% | +16.3% | +0.5% | +6.1% | +0.5% | +2.8% | +0.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $381K | $378K | $367K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $542K | $592K | $657K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$381K to $542K
38.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$367K to $657K
67.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama City Beach | $398K | $428K | +7.5% | |
| Panama City | $417K | $469K | +12.4% | |
| Panama City Beaches (Tract 002703) | $427K | $471K | +10.4% | |
| Panama City Beaches (Tract 002710) | $393K | $432K | +10.0% | |
| Panama City Beaches (Tract 002706) | $428K | $469K | +9.6% | |
| Panama City Beaches (Tract 002708) | $416K | $450K | +8.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama City Beach | $398K | $428K | +7.5% | |
| Panama City Beaches | $464K | $548K | +18.0% | |
| Lynn Haven | $364K | $426K | +16.8% | |
| Panama City Beach | $492K | $564K | +14.5% | |
| Callaway | $237K | $270K | +13.8% | |
| Panama City | $417K | $469K | +12.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama City Beach | $398K | $428K | $290K | |
| Panama City (Tract 000803) | $176K | $189K | $95K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001800) | $166K | $173K | $95K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001000) | $198K | $216K | $92K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001700) | $169K | $180K | $75K | |
| Youngstown | $124K | $130K | $73K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.