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Alachua, FL · ZIP 32618 · Census Tract 12001002209 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$370K
Downside (P10)
$292K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$397K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$526K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $218K | $219K | $224K | $228K | $243K | $258K | $276K | $323K | $345K | $366K | $370K | $380K | $386K | $397K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$152,144 | -$150,944 | -$145,344 | -$141,344 | -$126,444 | -$112,144 | -$93,344 | -$46,744 | -$24,744 | -$3,944 | +$10,707 | +$16,493 | +$26,856 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.1% | -40.8% | -39.3% | -38.2% | -34.2% | -30.3% | -25.2% | -12.6% | -6.7% | -1.1% | +2.9% | +4.5% | +7.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $320K | $311K | $292K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $443K | $496K | $526K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$320K to $443K
32.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$292K to $526K
58.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newberry-Archer | $366K | $397K | +8.4% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002220) | $367K | $418K | +13.9% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 000808) | $362K | $398K | +9.8% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001100) | $374K | $400K | +7.1% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001000) | $355K | $371K | +4.6% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002221) | $383K | $399K | +4.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newberry-Archer | $366K | $397K | +8.4% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002204) | $410K | $513K | +25.3% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001516) | $180K | $214K | +18.8% | |
| High Springs-Alachua | $510K | $606K | +18.7% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001605) | $244K | $286K | +17.4% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001515) | $171K | $198K | +16.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newberry-Archer | $366K | $397K | $233K | |
| Hawthorne | $174K | $182K | $92K | |
| Gainesville (Tract 000700) | $149K | $157K | $80K | |
| Gainesville (Tract 000600) | $160K | $171K | $77K | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001400) | $126K | $136K | $67K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Alachua, FL · ZIP 32618 · Census Tract 12001002209 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$370K
Downside (P10)
$292K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$397K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$526K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $218K | $219K | $224K | $228K | $243K | $258K | $276K | $323K | $345K | $366K | $370K | $380K | $386K | $397K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$152,144 | -$150,944 | -$145,344 | -$141,344 | -$126,444 | -$112,144 | -$93,344 | -$46,744 | -$24,744 | -$3,944 | +$10,707 | +$16,493 | +$26,856 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.1% | -40.8% | -39.3% | -38.2% | -34.2% | -30.3% | -25.2% | -12.6% | -6.7% | -1.1% | +2.9% | +4.5% | +7.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $320K | $311K | $292K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $443K | $496K | $526K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$320K to $443K
32.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$292K to $526K
58.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newberry-Archer | $366K | $397K | +8.4% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002220) | $367K | $418K | +13.9% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 000808) | $362K | $398K | +9.8% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001100) | $374K | $400K | +7.1% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001000) | $355K | $371K | +4.6% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002221) | $383K | $399K | +4.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newberry-Archer | $366K | $397K | +8.4% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002204) | $410K | $513K | +25.3% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001516) | $180K | $214K | +18.8% | |
| High Springs-Alachua | $510K | $606K | +18.7% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001605) | $244K | $286K | +17.4% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001515) | $171K | $198K | +16.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newberry-Archer | $366K | $397K | $233K | |
| Hawthorne | $174K | $182K | $92K | |
| Gainesville (Tract 000700) | $149K | $157K | $80K | |
| Gainesville (Tract 000600) | $160K | $171K | $77K | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001400) | $126K | $136K | $67K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
