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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Alachua, FL · ZIP 32653 · Census Tract 12001001803 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$263K
Downside (P10)
$233K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$286K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$365K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $145K | $148K | $148K | $159K | $168K | $175K | $173K | $199K | $238K | $254K | $263K | $272K | $279K | $286K |
| YoY Change | +2.4% | +0.1% | +7.4% | +5.8% | +4.0% | -1.2% | +14.9% | +19.7% | +6.9% | +3.4% | +3.3% | +2.7% | +2.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $234K | $244K | $233K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $318K | $329K | $365K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$234K to $318K
30.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$233K to $365K
46.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainesville | $258K | $286K | +11.0% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 000202) | $250K | $290K | +15.9% | |
| Micanopy | $278K | $320K | +15.1% | |
| Newberry-Archer | $252K | $269K | +6.5% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001201) | $271K | $285K | +5.1% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001701) | $250K | $251K | +0.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainesville | $258K | $286K | +11.0% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002204) | $410K | $513K | +25.3% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001516) | $180K | $214K | +18.8% | |
| High Springs-Alachua | $510K | $606K | +18.7% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001605) | $244K | $286K | +17.4% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001515) | $171K | $198K | +16.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainesville | $258K | $286K | $132K | |
| Hawthorne | $174K | $182K | $92K | |
| Gainesville (Tract 000700) | $149K | $157K | $80K | |
| Gainesville (Tract 000600) | $160K | $171K | $77K | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001400) | $126K | $136K | $67K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.