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Alachua, FL · ZIP 32606 · Census Tract 12001002204 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$414K
Downside (P10)
$359K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$513K
+24% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$624K
+51% by 2030
Base case: +24% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +51%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $207K | $215K | $226K | $237K | $236K | $251K | $300K | $371K | $399K | $401K | $414K | $434K | $450K | $513K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$207,490 | -$199,390 | -$188,390 | -$177,190 | -$177,990 | -$163,290 | -$114,590 | -$43,390 | -$14,990 | -$13,190 | +$19,557 | +$35,939 | +$99,013 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -50.1% | -48.1% | -45.5% | -42.8% | -43.0% | -39.4% | -27.7% | -10.5% | -3.6% | -3.2% | +4.7% | +8.7% | +23.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $373K | $378K | $359K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $539K | $571K | $624K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$373K to $539K
38.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$359K to $624K
51.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainesville · 32606 · (Tract 22.4) | $410K | $513K | +25.3% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002220) | $367K | $418K | +13.9% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002222) | $451K | $489K | +8.4% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002207) | $393K | $423K | +7.7% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001100) | $374K | $400K | +7.1% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002221) | $383K | $399K | +4.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainesville · 32606 · (Tract 22.4) | $410K | $513K | +25.3% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001516) | $180K | $214K | +18.8% | |
| High Springs-Alachua | $510K | $606K | +18.7% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001605) | $244K | $286K | +17.4% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001515) | $171K | $198K | +16.3% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 000202) | $250K | $290K | +15.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainesville · 32606 · (Tract 22.4) | $410K | $513K | $265K | |
| Hawthorne | $174K | $182K | $92K | |
| Gainesville (Tract 000700) | $149K | $157K | $80K | |
| Gainesville (Tract 000600) | $160K | $171K | $77K | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001400) | $126K | $136K | $67K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Alachua, FL · ZIP 32606 · Census Tract 12001002204 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$414K
Downside (P10)
$359K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$513K
+24% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$624K
+51% by 2030
Base case: +24% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +51%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $207K | $215K | $226K | $237K | $236K | $251K | $300K | $371K | $399K | $401K | $414K | $434K | $450K | $513K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$207,490 | -$199,390 | -$188,390 | -$177,190 | -$177,990 | -$163,290 | -$114,590 | -$43,390 | -$14,990 | -$13,190 | +$19,557 | +$35,939 | +$99,013 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -50.1% | -48.1% | -45.5% | -42.8% | -43.0% | -39.4% | -27.7% | -10.5% | -3.6% | -3.2% | +4.7% | +8.7% | +23.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $373K | $378K | $359K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $539K | $571K | $624K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$373K to $539K
38.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$359K to $624K
51.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainesville · 32606 · (Tract 22.4) | $410K | $513K | +25.3% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002220) | $367K | $418K | +13.9% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002222) | $451K | $489K | +8.4% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002207) | $393K | $423K | +7.7% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001100) | $374K | $400K | +7.1% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002221) | $383K | $399K | +4.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainesville · 32606 · (Tract 22.4) | $410K | $513K | +25.3% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001516) | $180K | $214K | +18.8% | |
| High Springs-Alachua | $510K | $606K | +18.7% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001605) | $244K | $286K | +17.4% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001515) | $171K | $198K | +16.3% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 000202) | $250K | $290K | +15.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainesville · 32606 · (Tract 22.4) | $410K | $513K | $265K | |
| Hawthorne | $174K | $182K | $92K | |
| Gainesville (Tract 000700) | $149K | $157K | $80K | |
| Gainesville (Tract 000600) | $160K | $171K | $77K | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001400) | $126K | $136K | $67K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
