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New Castle, DE · ZIP 19810 · Census Tract 10003011100 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$464K
Downside (P10)
$412K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$495K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$615K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $333K | $335K | $342K | $349K | $353K | $365K | $373K | $413K | $433K | $454K | $464K | $470K | $478K | $495K | $474K |
| YoY Change | +0.7% | +2.1% | +2.0% | +1.1% | +3.3% | +2.4% | +10.5% | +4.8% | +5.0% | +2.2% | +1.2% | +1.8% | +3.5% | -4.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $402K | $402K | $412K | $416K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $570K | $571K | $615K | $534K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$402K to $570K
35.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$416K to $534K
24.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandywine · Wilmington · (Tract 111) | $471K | $495K | +5.0% | |
| Middletown-Odessa (Tract 016611) | $464K | $555K | +19.7% | |
| Brandywine (Tract 010800) | $459K | $507K | +10.4% | |
| Middletown-Odessa (Tract 016608) | $461K | $494K | +7.1% | |
| Brandywine (Tract 011205) | $464K | $496K | +6.9% | |
| Pike Creek-Central Kirkwood | $466K | $481K | +3.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandywine · Wilmington · (Tract 111) | $471K | $495K | +5.0% | |
| Wilmington | $260K | $316K | +21.6% | |
| Middletown-Odessa | $464K | $555K | +19.7% | |
| Brandywine | $394K | $464K | +17.6% | |
| Brookside | $272K | $317K | +16.7% | |
| New Castle | $279K | $325K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandywine · Wilmington · (Tract 111) | $471K | $495K | $203K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000601) | $153K | $158K | $100K | |
| New Castle | $167K | $179K | $88K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000900) | $114K | $128K | $74K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000602) | $154K | $174K | $72K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 002900) | $100K | $112K | $46K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.