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New Castle, DE · ZIP 19702 · Census Tract 10003014903 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$351K
Downside (P10)
$310K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$377K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$515K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $161K | $159K | $173K | $179K | $188K | $223K | $254K | $284K | $333K | $342K | $351K | $362K | $371K | $377K | $357K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$189,481 | -$191,881 | -$177,681 | -$171,981 | -$162,981 | -$127,881 | -$96,681 | -$66,681 | -$17,681 | -$8,581 | +$11,346 | +$20,120 | +$26,510 | +$6,102 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -54.0% | -54.7% | -50.7% | -49.0% | -46.5% | -36.5% | -27.6% | -19.0% | -5.0% | -2.4% | +3.2% | +5.7% | +7.6% | +1.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $317K | $313K | $310K | $317K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $430K | $460K | $515K | $400K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$317K to $430K
31.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$317K to $400K
23.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $346K | $377K | +9.0% | |
| New Castle | $356K | $405K | +13.9% | |
| Pike Creek-Central Kirkwood (Tract 013614) | $356K | $399K | +12.2% | |
| Newark (Tract 013700) | $357K | $383K | +7.3% | |
| Pike Creek-Central Kirkwood (Tract 013608) | $346K | $367K | +6.3% | |
| Newark (Tract 014402) | $349K | $354K | +1.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $346K | $377K | +9.0% | |
| Wilmington | $260K | $316K | +21.6% | |
| Middletown-Odessa | $464K | $555K | +19.7% | |
| Brandywine | $394K | $464K | +17.6% | |
| Brookside | $272K | $317K | +16.7% | |
| New Castle | $279K | $325K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $346K | $377K | $204K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000601) | $153K | $158K | $100K | |
| New Castle | $167K | $179K | $88K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000900) | $114K | $128K | $74K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000602) | $154K | $174K | $72K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 002900) | $100K | $112K | $46K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
New Castle, DE · ZIP 19702 · Census Tract 10003014903 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$351K
Downside (P10)
$310K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$377K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$515K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $161K | $159K | $173K | $179K | $188K | $223K | $254K | $284K | $333K | $342K | $351K | $362K | $371K | $377K | $357K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$189,481 | -$191,881 | -$177,681 | -$171,981 | -$162,981 | -$127,881 | -$96,681 | -$66,681 | -$17,681 | -$8,581 | +$11,346 | +$20,120 | +$26,510 | +$6,102 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -54.0% | -54.7% | -50.7% | -49.0% | -46.5% | -36.5% | -27.6% | -19.0% | -5.0% | -2.4% | +3.2% | +5.7% | +7.6% | +1.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $317K | $313K | $310K | $317K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $430K | $460K | $515K | $400K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$317K to $430K
31.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$317K to $400K
23.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $346K | $377K | +9.0% | |
| New Castle | $356K | $405K | +13.9% | |
| Pike Creek-Central Kirkwood (Tract 013614) | $356K | $399K | +12.2% | |
| Newark (Tract 013700) | $357K | $383K | +7.3% | |
| Pike Creek-Central Kirkwood (Tract 013608) | $346K | $367K | +6.3% | |
| Newark (Tract 014402) | $349K | $354K | +1.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $346K | $377K | +9.0% | |
| Wilmington | $260K | $316K | +21.6% | |
| Middletown-Odessa | $464K | $555K | +19.7% | |
| Brandywine | $394K | $464K | +17.6% | |
| Brookside | $272K | $317K | +16.7% | |
| New Castle | $279K | $325K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $346K | $377K | $204K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000601) | $153K | $158K | $100K | |
| New Castle | $167K | $179K | $88K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000900) | $114K | $128K | $74K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000602) | $154K | $174K | $72K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 002900) | $100K | $112K | $46K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
