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South Central Connecticut, CT · Census Tract 09170154102 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$264K
Downside (P10)
$230K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$291K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$404K
+53% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +53%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $235K | $253K | $256K | $264K | $273K | $273K | $291K |
| YoY Change | +7.5% | +1.0% | +3.1% | +3.5% | +0.1% | +6.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $234K | $244K | $230K | ||||
| Upside (P90) | $310K | $365K | $404K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$234K to $310K
27.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$230K to $404K
59.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Haven · (Tract 1541.2) | $259K | $291K | +12.6% | |
| West Haven | $261K | $303K | +15.8% | |
| East Haven | $265K | $286K | +8.0% | |
| Meriden (Tract 171700) | $267K | $288K | +7.8% | |
| Meriden (Tract 171202) | $265K | $281K | +5.9% | |
| Branford | $266K | $281K | +5.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Haven · (Tract 1541.2) | $259K | $291K | +12.6% | |
| New Haven (Tract 141301) | $240K | $291K | +21.2% | |
| New Haven (Tract 140500) | $368K | $443K | +20.4% | |
| Milford city (balance) | $392K | $466K | +18.8% | |
| Meriden (Tract 170200) | $172K | $203K | +17.9% | |
| Meriden (Tract 171100) | $236K | $277K | +17.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Haven · (Tract 1541.2) | $259K | $291K | $174K | |
| Meriden (Tract 171600) | $223K | $247K | $112K | |
| Meriden (Tract 171400) | $184K | $196K | $106K | |
| New Haven (Tract 142605) | $189K | $199K | $103K | |
| Meriden (Tract 171500) | $189K | $212K | $96K | |
| New Haven (Tract 361401) | $115K | $123K | $77K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.