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Naugatuck Valley, CT · Census Tract 09140349100 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$275K
Downside (P10)
$230K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$290K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$450K
+64% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +64%. The model forecasts this with 58% confidence.
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $241K | $247K | $273K | $275K | $293K | $294K | $290K |
| YoY Change | +2.2% | +10.5% | +0.9% | +6.5% | +0.6% | -1.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $244K | $243K | $230K | ||||
| Upside (P90) | $367K | $407K | $450K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. Short-term confidence is moderate but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$244K to $367K
42.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$230K to $450K
76.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomaston | $274K | $290K | +5.6% | |
| Derby | $267K | $326K | +21.8% | |
| Waterbury | $208K | $248K | +18.8% | |
| Shelton (Tract 110201) | $370K | $436K | +17.9% | |
| Shelton (Tract 110602) | $479K | $564K | +17.7% | |
| Bristol | $298K | $350K | +17.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomaston | $274K | $290K | $220K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 351000) | $181K | $206K | $101K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 352800) | $211K | $224K | $99K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 350200) | $185K | $203K | $97K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 351100) | $150K | $163K | $85K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 352701) | $142K | $160K | $81K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.