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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Naugatuck Valley, CT · Census Tract 09140347100 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$368K
Downside (P10)
$302K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$409K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$574K
+56% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +56%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $344K | $355K | $356K | $368K | $380K | $393K | $409K |
| YoY Change | +3.1% | +0.3% | +3.6% | +3.1% | +3.5% | +4.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $318K | $309K | $302K | ||||
| Upside (P90) | $451K | $517K | $574K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$318K to $451K
35.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$302K to $574K
66.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prospect · (Tract 3471) | $360K | $409K | +13.5% | |
| Derby | $267K | $326K | +21.8% | |
| Waterbury | $208K | $248K | +18.8% | |
| Shelton (Tract 110201) | $370K | $436K | +17.9% | |
| Shelton (Tract 110602) | $479K | $564K | +17.7% | |
| Bristol | $298K | $350K | +17.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prospect · (Tract 3471) | $360K | $409K | $271K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 351000) | $181K | $206K | $101K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 352800) | $211K | $224K | $99K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 350200) | $185K | $203K | $97K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 351100) | $150K | $163K | $85K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 352701) | $142K | $160K | $81K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.