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Naugatuck Valley, CT · Census Tract 09140405300 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$239K
Downside (P10)
$202K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$276K
+16% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$346K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +16% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $203K | $214K | $236K | $239K | $247K | $268K | $276K | $247K |
| YoY Change | +5.5% | +10.3% | +1.1% | +3.4% | +8.4% | +3.0% | -10.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $208K | $205K | $202K | $221K | ||||
| Upside (P90) | $285K | $321K | $346K | $277K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$208K to $285K
30.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$221K to $277K
22.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol · (Tract 4053) | $239K | $276K | +15.2% | |
| Waterbury (Tract 351601) | $240K | $252K | +5.1% | |
| Waterbury (Tract 351900) | $234K | $258K | +10.5% | |
| Terryville | $233K | $246K | +5.5% | |
| Naugatuck | $244K | $277K | +13.2% | |
| Waterbury (Tract 352400) | $244K | $272K | +11.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol · (Tract 4053) | $239K | $276K | +15.2% | |
| Derby | $267K | $326K | +21.8% | |
| Waterbury | $208K | $248K | +18.8% | |
| Shelton (Tract 110201) | $370K | $436K | +17.9% | |
| Shelton (Tract 110602) | $479K | $564K | +17.7% | |
| Bristol | $298K | $350K | +17.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol · (Tract 4053) | $239K | $276K | $144K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 352701) | $142K | $160K | $81K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 351100) | $150K | $163K | $85K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 350200) | $185K | $203K | $97K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 352800) | $211K | $224K | $99K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 351000) | $181K | $206K | $101K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.