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Mesa, CO · ZIP 81504 · Census Tract 08077000802 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$278K
Downside (P10)
$250K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$322K
+16% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$424K
+53% by 2030
Base case: +16% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +53%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $167K | $200K | $238K | $258K | $273K | $278K | $283K | $299K | $322K | $282K |
| YoY Change | +19.2% | +19.0% | +8.5% | +5.9% | +1.8% | +2.0% | +5.4% | +7.7% | -12.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $255K | $254K | $250K | $255K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $347K | $370K | $424K | $321K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$255K to $347K
32.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$255K to $321K
23.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Junction · 81504 · (Tract 8.2) | $280K | $322K | +14.8% | |
| Grand Junction (Tract 000602) | $282K | $317K | +12.5% | |
| Clifton (Tract 001705) | $274K | $309K | +13.0% | |
| Grand Junction (Tract 000500) | $285K | $313K | +9.7% | |
| Clifton (Tract 001707) | $290K | $319K | +9.9% | |
| Grand Junction (Tract 000300) | $293K | $324K | +10.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Junction · 81504 · (Tract 8.2) | $280K | $322K | +14.8% | |
| Grand Junction (Tract 001103) | $391K | $451K | +15.3% | |
| Grand Junction (Tract 000801) | $339K | $389K | +14.6% | |
| Grand Junction (Tract 000601) | $326K | $373K | +14.4% | |
| Grand Junction (Tract 001304) | $295K | $336K | +14.2% | |
| Clifton | $244K | $278K | +14.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Junction · 81504 · (Tract 8.2) | $280K | $322K | $174K | |
| Clifton (Tract 001706) | $244K | $278K | $128K | |
| Clifton (Tract 001705) | $274K | $309K | $147K | |
| Grand Junction (Tract 000602) | $282K | $317K | $153K | |
| Grand Junction (Tract 000400) | $302K | $317K | $155K | |
| Grand Junction (Tract 001304) | $295K | $336K | $164K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.