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Jefferson, CO · ZIP 80465 · Census Tract 08059012038 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$559K
Downside (P10)
$507K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$614K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$874K
+56% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +56%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $235K | $239K | $268K | $296K | $334K | $361K | $395K | $467K | $494K | $552K | $559K | $588K | $611K | $614K | $579K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$324,432 | -$320,132 | -$290,832 | -$262,632 | -$224,932 | -$197,632 | -$164,032 | -$92,432 | -$64,632 | -$7,232 | +$29,233 | +$51,778 | +$55,353 | +$20,152 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -58.0% | -57.3% | -52.0% | -47.0% | -40.2% | -35.4% | -29.3% | -16.5% | -11.6% | -1.3% | +5.2% | +9.3% | +9.9% | +3.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $506K | $516K | $507K | $515K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $667K | $785K | $874K | $640K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$506K to $667K
27.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$515K to $640K
21.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Ridge · Morrison · (Tract 120.38) | $553K | $614K | +11.1% | |
| Lakewood (Tract 011804) | $561K | $645K | +14.9% | |
| Northeast Jefferson | $553K | $612K | +10.8% | |
| Arvada (Tract 010307) | $554K | $604K | +9.0% | |
| Arvada (Tract 010213) | $565K | $614K | +8.6% | |
| Lakewood (Tract 011731) | $553K | $595K | +7.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Ridge · Morrison · (Tract 120.38) | $553K | $614K | +11.1% | |
| Northeast Jefferson | $601K | $712K | +18.3% | |
| Lakewood (Tract 011728) | $652K | $763K | +17.0% | |
| Dakota Ridge | $692K | $806K | +16.5% | |
| Columbine | $634K | $736K | +16.2% | |
| Lakewood (Tract 011807) | $569K | $657K | +15.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Ridge · Morrison · (Tract 120.38) | $553K | $614K | $367K | |
| Lakewood (Tract 011402) | $338K | $388K | $234K | |
| Lakewood (Tract 011732) | $353K | $405K | $217K | |
| Arvada | $554K | $604K | $211K | |
| Lakewood (Tract 011904) | $360K | $367K | $135K | |
| Golden | $113K | $124K | $64K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Jefferson, CO · ZIP 80465 · Census Tract 08059012038 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$559K
Downside (P10)
$507K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$614K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$874K
+56% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +56%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $235K | $239K | $268K | $296K | $334K | $361K | $395K | $467K | $494K | $552K | $559K | $588K | $611K | $614K | $579K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$324,432 | -$320,132 | -$290,832 | -$262,632 | -$224,932 | -$197,632 | -$164,032 | -$92,432 | -$64,632 | -$7,232 | +$29,233 | +$51,778 | +$55,353 | +$20,152 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -58.0% | -57.3% | -52.0% | -47.0% | -40.2% | -35.4% | -29.3% | -16.5% | -11.6% | -1.3% | +5.2% | +9.3% | +9.9% | +3.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $506K | $516K | $507K | $515K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $667K | $785K | $874K | $640K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$506K to $667K
27.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$515K to $640K
21.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Ridge · Morrison · (Tract 120.38) | $553K | $614K | +11.1% | |
| Lakewood (Tract 011804) | $561K | $645K | +14.9% | |
| Northeast Jefferson | $553K | $612K | +10.8% | |
| Arvada (Tract 010307) | $554K | $604K | +9.0% | |
| Arvada (Tract 010213) | $565K | $614K | +8.6% | |
| Lakewood (Tract 011731) | $553K | $595K | +7.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Ridge · Morrison · (Tract 120.38) | $553K | $614K | +11.1% | |
| Northeast Jefferson | $601K | $712K | +18.3% | |
| Lakewood (Tract 011728) | $652K | $763K | +17.0% | |
| Dakota Ridge | $692K | $806K | +16.5% | |
| Columbine | $634K | $736K | +16.2% | |
| Lakewood (Tract 011807) | $569K | $657K | +15.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Ridge · Morrison · (Tract 120.38) | $553K | $614K | $367K | |
| Lakewood (Tract 011402) | $338K | $388K | $234K | |
| Lakewood (Tract 011732) | $353K | $405K | $217K | |
| Arvada | $554K | $604K | $211K | |
| Lakewood (Tract 011904) | $360K | $367K | $135K | |
| Golden | $113K | $124K | $64K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
