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Jefferson, CO · ZIP 80004 · Census Tract 08059010306 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$616K
Downside (P10)
$545K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$633K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$874K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $235K | $253K | $286K | $321K | $361K | $407K | $424K | $542K | $573K | $586K | $616K | $622K | $641K | $633K |
| YoY Change | +7.7% | +13.2% | +12.1% | +12.5% | +12.6% | +4.2% | +27.9% | +5.8% | +2.2% | +5.2% | +0.9% | +3.0% | -1.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $560K | $566K | $545K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $736K | $819K | $874K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$560K to $736K
28.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$545K to $874K
52.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arvada · 80004 · (Tract 103.6) | $602K | $633K | +5.2% | |
| Arvada (Tract 009840) | $615K | $659K | +7.1% | |
| Lakewood (Tract 015800) | $614K | $670K | +9.0% | |
| Northeast Jefferson | $618K | $703K | +13.6% | |
| Arvada (Tract 009841) | $619K | $695K | +12.2% | |
| Lakewood (Tract 011701) | $621K | $656K | +5.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arvada · 80004 · (Tract 103.6) | $602K | $633K | +5.2% | |
| Northeast Jefferson | $601K | $712K | +18.3% | |
| Bear Valley | $652K | $763K | +17.0% | |
| Dakota Ridge | $692K | $806K | +16.5% | |
| Columbine | $634K | $736K | +16.2% | |
| Lakewood | $569K | $657K | +15.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arvada · 80004 · (Tract 103.6) | $602K | $633K | $329K | |
| Golden | $113K | $124K | $64K | |
| Lakewood (Tract 011904) | $360K | $367K | $135K | |
| Arvada | $554K | $604K | $211K | |
| Lakewood (Tract 011732) | $353K | $405K | $217K | |
| Edgewater | $338K | $388K | $234K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.