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El Paso, CO · ZIP 80928 · Census Tract 08041004603 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$447K
Downside (P10)
$368K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$483K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$689K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $199K | $202K | $221K | $238K | $267K | $279K | $299K | $337K | $401K | $443K | $447K | $458K | $467K | $483K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$247,729 | -$245,529 | -$226,529 | -$209,529 | -$180,629 | -$168,529 | -$148,529 | -$110,129 | -$46,029 | -$4,329 | +$11,284 | +$19,635 | +$36,345 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -55.4% | -54.9% | -50.7% | -46.9% | -40.4% | -37.7% | -33.2% | -24.6% | -10.3% | -1.0% | +2.5% | +4.4% | +8.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $382K | $368K | $368K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $588K | $615K | $689K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$382K to $588K
44.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$368K to $689K
66.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southeastern El Paso | $437K | $483K | +10.5% | |
| Colorado Springs (Tract 001301) | $449K | $538K | +19.9% | |
| Security-Widefield | $449K | $493K | +9.6% | |
| Elsmere | $449K | $490K | +9.1% | |
| Fountain | $446K | $485K | +8.6% | |
| Colorado Springs (Tract 004703) | $446K | $449K | +0.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southeastern El Paso | $437K | $483K | +10.5% | |
| Elsmere | $539K | $646K | +20.0% | |
| Colorado Springs (Tract 001301) | $449K | $538K | +19.9% | |
| Colorado Springs (Tract 000103) | $306K | $361K | +18.0% | |
| Colorado Springs (Tract 000700) | $400K | $471K | +17.7% | |
| Colorado Springs (Tract 004707) | $438K | $516K | +17.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southeastern El Paso | $437K | $483K | $320K | |
| Colorado Springs (Tract 006100) | $292K | $320K | $142K | |
| Colorado Springs (Tract 002101) | $262K | $295K | $136K | |
| Cimarron Hills (Tract 005000) | $288K | $330K | $125K | |
| Cimarron Hills (Tract 005114) | $121K | $136K | $82K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
El Paso, CO · ZIP 80928 · Census Tract 08041004603 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$447K
Downside (P10)
$368K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$483K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$689K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $199K | $202K | $221K | $238K | $267K | $279K | $299K | $337K | $401K | $443K | $447K | $458K | $467K | $483K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$247,729 | -$245,529 | -$226,529 | -$209,529 | -$180,629 | -$168,529 | -$148,529 | -$110,129 | -$46,029 | -$4,329 | +$11,284 | +$19,635 | +$36,345 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -55.4% | -54.9% | -50.7% | -46.9% | -40.4% | -37.7% | -33.2% | -24.6% | -10.3% | -1.0% | +2.5% | +4.4% | +8.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $382K | $368K | $368K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $588K | $615K | $689K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$382K to $588K
44.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$368K to $689K
66.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southeastern El Paso | $437K | $483K | +10.5% | |
| Colorado Springs (Tract 001301) | $449K | $538K | +19.9% | |
| Security-Widefield | $449K | $493K | +9.6% | |
| Elsmere | $449K | $490K | +9.1% | |
| Fountain | $446K | $485K | +8.6% | |
| Colorado Springs (Tract 004703) | $446K | $449K | +0.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southeastern El Paso | $437K | $483K | +10.5% | |
| Elsmere | $539K | $646K | +20.0% | |
| Colorado Springs (Tract 001301) | $449K | $538K | +19.9% | |
| Colorado Springs (Tract 000103) | $306K | $361K | +18.0% | |
| Colorado Springs (Tract 000700) | $400K | $471K | +17.7% | |
| Colorado Springs (Tract 004707) | $438K | $516K | +17.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southeastern El Paso | $437K | $483K | $320K | |
| Colorado Springs (Tract 006100) | $292K | $320K | $142K | |
| Colorado Springs (Tract 002101) | $262K | $295K | $136K | |
| Cimarron Hills (Tract 005000) | $288K | $330K | $125K | |
| Cimarron Hills (Tract 005114) | $121K | $136K | $82K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
