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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Douglas, CO · ZIP 80104 · Census Tract 08035014603 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$547K
Downside (P10)
$446K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$567K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$800K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $231K | $249K | $268K | $294K | $325K | $344K | $371K | $440K | $499K | $540K | $547K | $543K | $560K | $567K |
| YoY Change | +7.8% | +7.4% | +10.0% | +10.4% | +5.9% | +7.9% | +18.4% | +13.4% | +8.3% | +1.2% | -0.7% | +3.0% | +1.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $468K | $460K | $446K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $669K | $706K | $800K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$468K to $669K
37.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$446K to $800K
62.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker · Castle Rock · (Tract 146.3) | $544K | $567K | +4.1% | |
| Stonegate | $582K | $682K | +17.2% | |
| Highlands Ranch (Tract 014138) | $537K | $593K | +10.5% | |
| Roxborough Park | $517K | $564K | +9.1% | |
| Highlands Ranch (Tract 014126) | $565K | $615K | +8.8% | |
| Parker | $539K | $581K | +7.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker · Castle Rock · (Tract 146.3) | $544K | $567K | +4.1% | |
| Parker (Tract 014014) | $593K | $717K | +20.8% | |
| Stonegate | $582K | $682K | +17.2% | |
| Parker (Tract 014008) | $713K | $833K | +16.8% | |
| Sedalia | $909K | $1.05M | +15.6% | |
| Lone Tree | $1.03M | $1.19M | +15.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker · Castle Rock · (Tract 146.3) | $544K | $567K | $354K | |
| Sedalia | $594K | $669K | $307K | |
| Castle Rock (Tract 014504) | $501K | $547K | $306K | |
| Castle Rock (Tract 014503) | $591K | $589K | $296K | |
| Parker (Tract 013907) | $637K | $686K | $287K | |
| Parker (Tract 014015) | $439K | $462K | $240K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.