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Arapahoe, CO · ZIP 80015 · Census Tract 08005083600 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$387K
Downside (P10)
$298K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$407K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$520K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $164K | $188K | $200K | $227K | $249K | $279K | $304K | $340K | $351K | $372K | $387K | $389K | $401K | $407K | $395K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$222,573 | -$199,373 | -$186,873 | -$159,473 | -$138,373 | -$107,573 | -$82,773 | -$46,873 | -$35,673 | -$14,873 | +$2,394 | +$14,131 | +$19,941 | +$7,821 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -57.5% | -51.5% | -48.3% | -41.2% | -35.8% | -27.8% | -21.4% | -12.1% | -9.2% | -3.8% | +0.6% | +3.7% | +5.2% | +2.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $313K | $309K | $298K | $347K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $486K | $513K | $520K | $441K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$313K to $486K
44.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$347K to $441K
23.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora · 80015 · (Tract 836) | $380K | $407K | +6.9% | |
| Aurora (Tract 082600) | $385K | $434K | +12.9% | |
| Aurora (Tract 081800) | $395K | $445K | +12.7% | |
| Southwest Arapahoe (Tract 005551) | $379K | $422K | +11.3% | |
| Southwest Arapahoe (Tract 006601) | $390K | $419K | +7.3% | |
| Aurora (Tract 082300) | $385K | $403K | +4.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora · 80015 · (Tract 836) | $380K | $407K | +6.9% | |
| South Aurora | $661K | $797K | +20.5% | |
| Englewood | $566K | $677K | +19.6% | |
| Centennial | $634K | $756K | +19.3% | |
| Southwest Arapahoe (Tract 006862) | $926K | $1.10M | +18.7% | |
| Southwest Arapahoe (Tract 006863) | $496K | $584K | +17.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora · 80015 · (Tract 836) | $380K | $407K | $222K | |
| Aurora (Tract 007301) | $451K | $492K | $190K | |
| Aurora (Tract 081001) | $261K | $284K | $181K | |
| Aurora (Tract 083900) | $404K | $448K | $174K | |
| Aurora (Tract 081500) | $345K | $359K | $165K | |
| Aurora (Tract 081102) | $285K | $303K | $138K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Arapahoe, CO · ZIP 80015 · Census Tract 08005083600 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$387K
Downside (P10)
$298K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$407K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$520K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $164K | $188K | $200K | $227K | $249K | $279K | $304K | $340K | $351K | $372K | $387K | $389K | $401K | $407K | $395K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$222,573 | -$199,373 | -$186,873 | -$159,473 | -$138,373 | -$107,573 | -$82,773 | -$46,873 | -$35,673 | -$14,873 | +$2,394 | +$14,131 | +$19,941 | +$7,821 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -57.5% | -51.5% | -48.3% | -41.2% | -35.8% | -27.8% | -21.4% | -12.1% | -9.2% | -3.8% | +0.6% | +3.7% | +5.2% | +2.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $313K | $309K | $298K | $347K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $486K | $513K | $520K | $441K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$313K to $486K
44.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$347K to $441K
23.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora · 80015 · (Tract 836) | $380K | $407K | +6.9% | |
| Aurora (Tract 082600) | $385K | $434K | +12.9% | |
| Aurora (Tract 081800) | $395K | $445K | +12.7% | |
| Southwest Arapahoe (Tract 005551) | $379K | $422K | +11.3% | |
| Southwest Arapahoe (Tract 006601) | $390K | $419K | +7.3% | |
| Aurora (Tract 082300) | $385K | $403K | +4.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora · 80015 · (Tract 836) | $380K | $407K | +6.9% | |
| South Aurora | $661K | $797K | +20.5% | |
| Englewood | $566K | $677K | +19.6% | |
| Centennial | $634K | $756K | +19.3% | |
| Southwest Arapahoe (Tract 006862) | $926K | $1.10M | +18.7% | |
| Southwest Arapahoe (Tract 006863) | $496K | $584K | +17.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora · 80015 · (Tract 836) | $380K | $407K | $222K | |
| Aurora (Tract 007301) | $451K | $492K | $190K | |
| Aurora (Tract 081001) | $261K | $284K | $181K | |
| Aurora (Tract 083900) | $404K | $448K | $174K | |
| Aurora (Tract 081500) | $345K | $359K | $165K | |
| Aurora (Tract 081102) | $285K | $303K | $138K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
