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San Jose, CA · ZIP 95020 · Census Tract 06085512603 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.00M
Downside (P10)
$775K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.09M
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.43M
+42% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $289K | $317K | $417K | $475K | $525K | $548K | $613K | $743K | $794K | $949K | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $974K |
| YoY Change | +9.8% | +31.5% | +13.7% | +10.7% | +4.4% | +11.9% | +21.1% | +6.9% | +19.5% | +5.9% | +4.5% | +1.3% | +2.3% | -10.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $797K | $808K | $775K | $861K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.1M |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$797K to $1.20M
38.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$861K to $1.12M
26.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilroy | $965K | $1.09M | +12.7% | |
| San Jose (Tract 501200) | $1.00M | $1.18M | +17.5% | |
| San Jose (Tract 512057) | $1.01M | $1.13M | +11.9% | |
| San Jose (Tract 504102) | $1000K | $1.09M | +9.5% | |
| San Jose (Tract 501700) | $1.00M | $1.09M | +9.4% | |
| San Jose (Tract 503336) | $999K | $1.03M | +3.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilroy | $965K | $1.09M | +12.7% | |
| San Jose (Tract 501601) | $1.05M | $1.30M | +24.0% | |
| Gilroy | $903K | $1.11M | +22.5% | |
| South Santa Clara Valley | $880K | $1.07M | +21.5% | |
| San Jose (Tract 503506) | $906K | $1.10M | +21.0% | |
| San Jose (Tract 503110) | $722K | $872K | +20.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilroy | $965K | $1.09M | $656K | |
| San Jose (Tract 505014) | $312K | $337K | $131K | |
| San Jose (Tract 503122) | $236K | $249K | $128K | |
| San Jose (Tract 503222) | $219K | $220K | $127K | |
| San Jose (Tract 503123) | $176K | $184K | $115K | |
| San Jose (Tract 504601) | $189K | $198K | $96K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.