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San Jose, CA · ZIP 95037 · Census Tract 06085512312 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.12M
Downside (P10)
$900K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.14M
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.50M
+34% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $538K | $573K | $653K | $695K | $719K | $739K | $805K | $918K | $977K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
| YoY Change | +6.5% | +13.9% | +6.5% | +3.4% | +2.8% | +8.9% | +14.1% | +6.4% | +8.3% | +5.6% | +4.1% | -1.5% | -0.5% | -3.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $913K | $899K | $900K | $986K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.2M |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$913K to $1.32M
35.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$986K to $1.25M
23.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Hill | $1.09M | $1.14M | +4.7% | |
| San Jose (Tract 504602) | $1.12M | $1.30M | +15.8% | |
| San Jose (Tract 503212) | $1.11M | $1.25M | +12.5% | |
| San Jose (Tract 502001) | $1.12M | $1.22M | +9.0% | |
| San Jose (Tract 503803) | $1.12M | $1.19M | +5.9% | |
| San Jose (Tract 512042) | $1.12M | $1.17M | +4.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Hill | $1.09M | $1.14M | +4.7% | |
| San Jose (Tract 501601) | $1.05M | $1.30M | +24.0% | |
| Gilroy | $903K | $1.11M | +22.5% | |
| South Santa Clara Valley | $880K | $1.07M | +21.5% | |
| San Jose (Tract 503506) | $906K | $1.10M | +21.0% | |
| San Jose (Tract 503110) | $722K | $872K | +20.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Hill | $1.09M | $1.14M | $600K | |
| San Jose (Tract 505014) | $312K | $337K | $131K | |
| San Jose (Tract 503122) | $236K | $249K | $128K | |
| San Jose (Tract 503222) | $219K | $220K | $127K | |
| San Jose (Tract 503123) | $176K | $184K | $115K | |
| San Jose (Tract 504601) | $189K | $198K | $96K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.