What is the home price forecast for Parcel 06053011606 in Carmel-by-the-Sea?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $1,565,676 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 7.1%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 06053011606 in Carmel-by-the-Sea?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $1,565,676 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 7.1%.

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Parcel 06053011606 (Carmel-by-the-Sea) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 06053011606, Carmel-by-the-Sea Home Price Forecast

Monterey, CA · ZIP 93923 · Census Tract 06053011606 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$1.57M

Downside (P10)

$1.33M

-15% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$1.68M

+7% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$2.26M

+44% by 2030

Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$1.1M	$1.1M	$1.5M	$1.5M	$1.5M	$1.6M	$1.6M	$1.6M	$1.7M
Growth $ vs 2026	-$420,076	-$474,076	-$114,276	-$99,176	-$42,576		+$60,635	+$40,000	+$110,419
Growth % vs 2026	-26.8%	-30.3%	-7.3%	-6.3%	-2.7%		+3.9%	+2.6%	+7.1%
Downside (P10)							$1.4M	$1.5M	$1.3M
Upside (P90)							$1.8M	$2.1M	$2.3M

Forecast Confidence

69%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.

Near-term band

$1.4M to $1.8M

26.3% of median

Long-horizon band

$1.3M to $2.3M

55.6% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +7.1% · Spread: 56%

·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 06053011606, Carmel-by-the-Sea on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).