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Merced, CA · ZIP 95340 · Census Tract 06047001101 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$382K
Downside (P10)
$351K
-8% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$414K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$524K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -8% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $192K | $210K | $231K | $268K | $282K | $286K | $295K | $353K | $372K | $378K | $382K | $392K | $401K | $414K |
| YoY Change | +9.1% | +10.2% | +15.9% | +5.1% | +1.5% | +3.2% | +19.6% | +5.5% | +1.5% | +1.1% | +2.5% | +2.4% | +3.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $344K | $352K | $351K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $473K | $473K | $524K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$344K to $473K
32.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$351K to $524K
41.8% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources