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Merced, CA · ZIP 95303 · Census Tract 06047000201 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$627K
Downside (P10)
$542K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$668K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$826K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $151K | $146K | $240K | $348K | $355K | $301K | $376K | $585K | $596K | $617K | $627K | $637K | $667K | $668K |
| YoY Change | -3.8% | +64.8% | +45.1% | +1.9% | -15.1% | +24.8% | +55.6% | +1.9% | +3.5% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +4.7% | +0.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $541K | $543K | $542K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $706K | $799K | $826K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$541K to $706K
25.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$542K to $826K
42.5% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources