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Merced, CA · ZIP 95334 · Census Tract 06047000301 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$453K
Downside (P10)
$363K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$470K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$626K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $185K | $199K | $235K | $264K | $244K | $241K | $275K | $371K | $419K | $440K | $453K | $459K | $465K | $470K |
| YoY Change | +7.6% | +18.3% | +12.1% | -7.4% | -1.3% | +14.1% | +35.0% | +12.7% | +5.1% | +3.1% | +1.2% | +1.4% | +0.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $372K | $364K | $363K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $520K | $565K | $626K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$372K to $520K
32.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$363K to $626K
55.9% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources