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Merced, CA · ZIP 95301 · Census Tract 06047000802 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$371K
Downside (P10)
$332K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$421K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$531K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $143K | $158K | $168K | $190K | $210K | $240K | $261K | $293K | $335K | $369K | $371K | $373K | $396K | $421K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$227,486 | -$213,086 | -$202,886 | -$180,486 | -$160,386 | -$130,286 | -$110,086 | -$77,986 | -$35,486 | -$1,386 | +$1,856 | +$25,763 | +$50,766 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -61.4% | -57.5% | -54.7% | -48.7% | -43.3% | -35.1% | -29.7% | -21.0% | -9.6% | -0.4% | +0.5% | +7.0% | +13.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $315K | $338K | $332K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $444K | $474K | $531K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$315K to $444K
34.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$332K to $531K
47.3% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Merced, CA · ZIP 95301 · Census Tract 06047000802 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$371K
Downside (P10)
$332K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$421K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$531K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $143K | $158K | $168K | $190K | $210K | $240K | $261K | $293K | $335K | $369K | $371K | $373K | $396K | $421K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$227,486 | -$213,086 | -$202,886 | -$180,486 | -$160,386 | -$130,286 | -$110,086 | -$77,986 | -$35,486 | -$1,386 | +$1,856 | +$25,763 | +$50,766 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -61.4% | -57.5% | -54.7% | -48.7% | -43.3% | -35.1% | -29.7% | -21.0% | -9.6% | -0.4% | +0.5% | +7.0% | +13.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $315K | $338K | $332K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $444K | $474K | $531K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$315K to $444K
34.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$332K to $531K
47.3% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
