Merced, CA · ZIP 95301 · Census Tract 06047000701 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$300K
Downside (P10)
$254K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$337K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$440K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +47%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar Merced markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $106K | $119K | $133K | $162K | $172K | $189K | $215K | $252K | $280K | $291K | $300K | $306K | $320K | $337K |
| YoY Change | +12.5% | +11.6% | +21.9% | +5.7% | +10.3% | +13.4% | +17.3% | +11.2% | +3.8% | +3.3% | +1.9% | +4.6% | +5.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $261K | $253K | $254K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $367K | $397K | $440K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$261K to $367K
34.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$254K to $440K
55.2% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources