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Los Angeles, CA · ZIP 91104 · Census Tract 06037462001 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.05M
Downside (P10)
$894K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.12M
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.52M
+45% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $388K | $436K | $456K | $528K | $515K | $645K | $706K | $786K | $948K | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
| YoY Change | +12.5% | +4.6% | +15.8% | -2.4% | +25.2% | +9.4% | +11.3% | +20.7% | +8.1% | +2.1% | +2.3% | +1.3% | +3.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $874K | $881K | $894K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.5M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$874K to $1.24M
34.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$894K to $1.52M
55.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pasadena | $1.04M | $1.12M | +7.9% | |
| Los Angeles (Tract 183222) | $1.05M | $1.17M | +11.2% | |
| Los Angeles (Tract 191120) | $1.05M | $1.15M | +9.5% | |
| Downey | $1.04M | $1.12M | +7.6% | |
| Pasadena | $1.05M | $1.12M | +6.6% | |
| Los Angeles (Tract 221220) | $1.05M | $1.11M | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pasadena | $1.04M | $1.12M | +7.9% | |
| Los Angeles (Tract 209201) | $1.05M | $1.34M | +27.1% | |
| Los Angeles (Tract 267700) | $1.09M | $1.38M | +26.3% | |
| Los Angeles (Tract 125200) | $1.18M | $1.48M | +25.5% | |
| Los Angeles (Tract 267201) | $968K | $1.19M | +22.8% | |
| Long Beach | $728K | $893K | +22.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pasadena | $1.04M | $1.12M | $625K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 900509) | $178K | $195K | $92K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 900602) | $118K | $137K | $70K | |
| Long Beach | $105K | $112K | $61K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 900610) | $86K | $96K | $46K | |
| Bell | $69K | $72K | $39K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.