El Dorado, CA · ZIP 95623 · Census Tract 06017031503 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$690K
Downside (P10)
$587K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$729K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$920K
+33% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +33%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar El Dorado markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $329K | $330K | $387K | $401K | $427K | $439K | $454K | $549K | $629K | $664K | $683K | $690K | $686K | $713K | $729K |
| YoY Change | +0.4% | +17.2% | +3.8% | +6.4% | +2.9% | +3.4% | +20.9% | +14.5% | +5.5% | +3.0% | +1.0% | -0.6% | +3.9% | +2.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $580K | $541K | $588K | $587K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $771K | $816K | $866K | $920K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$619K to $721K
15.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$587K to $920K
45.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| South El Dorado | $696K | $790K | +13.4% |
| South Lake Tahoe | $675K | $743K | +10.1% |
| South Lake Tahoe | $672K | $728K | +8.4% |
| South El Dorado | $712K | $757K | +6.4% |
| South Lake Tahoe | $666K | $719K | +8.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Lake Tahoe | $973K | $1.15M | +17.9% |
| North El Dorado | $457K | $532K | +16.5% |
| South El Dorado | $548K | $632K | +15.4% |
| El Dorado Hills | $819K | $936K | +14.3% |
| Cameron Park | $663K | $754K | +13.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| North El Dorado | $390K | $404K | $167K |
| South El Dorado | $451K | $496K | $198K |
| South El Dorado | $486K | $519K | $215K |
| North El Dorado | $457K | $532K | $217K |
| South El Dorado | $449K | $482K | $238K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources