What is the home price forecast for Oakland?

Homecastr forecasts Oakland median home values at $823,514 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 11.0%.

How confident is the Oakland forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $802,451 (downside) to $1,163,745 (upside), with a spread of 40% of median.

Oakland Home Price Forecast

Alameda, CA · ZIP 94602 · Census Tract 06001406601 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$824K

Downside (P10)

$802K

-3% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$914K

+11% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$1.16M

+41% by 2030

Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -3% to +41%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar Alameda markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$340K	$371K	$361K	$433K	$481K	$535K	$590K	$708K	$742K	$788K	$793K	$824K	$857K	$881K	$914K
YoY Change		+9.3%	-2.6%	+20.0%	+11.0%	+11.3%	+10.2%	+19.9%	+4.8%	+6.2%	+0.6%	+3.8%	+4.0%	+2.9%	+3.7%
Downside (P10)												$737K	$745K	$791K	$802K
Upside (P90)												$918K	$1.0M	$1.1M	$1.2M

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.

1-Year Spread

$748K to $851K

12.9% of median

5-Year Spread

$802K to $1.16M

39.5% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +11.0% · Spread: 40%

·The forecast implies mild near-term softness followed by longer-term recovery.
·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Ashland	$823K	$892K	+8.5%
Fremont	$822K	$935K	+13.7%
Hayward	$822K	$916K	+11.5%
Oakland	$827K	$911K	+10.2%
Oakland	$829K	$900K	+8.6%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Berkeley	$1.24M	$1.51M	+22.0%
Livermore-Pleasanton	$2.01M	$2.45M	+22.0%
Oakland	$623K	$743K	+19.2%
Berkeley	$1.63M	$1.94M	+18.8%
Fremont	$2.04M	$2.43M	+18.8%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Oakland	$461K	$471K	$187K
Oakland	$526K	$612K	$267K
Hayward	$564K	$643K	$287K
Hayward	$404K	$439K	$292K
Oakland	$621K	$737K	$294K

Location

Oakland on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).