County 06280, CA · Census Tract 06280080103 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$3.97M
Downside (P10)
$2.34M
-41% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.79M
-30% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$3.13M
-21% by 2030
Base case: -30% by 2030, with a forecast range from -41% to -21%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 06280 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $4.0M | $4.0M | $3.5M | $2.9M | $2.8M |
| YoY Change | +0.1% | -12.5% | -16.1% | -4.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $3.5M | $3.0M | $2.5M | $2.3M | |
| Upside (P90) | $4.3M | $3.8M | $3.2M | $3.1M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$3.64M to $4.18M
13.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$2.34M to $3.13M
28.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 760009 | $4.53M | $2.94M | -35.1% |
| Tract 720007 | $2.72M | $1.97M | -27.6% |
| Tract 840000 | $2.71M | $1.89M | -30.5% |
| Tract 080006 | $2.70M | $1.80M | -33.2% |
| Tract 680008 | $1.70M | $1.48M | -13.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680008 | $1.70M | $1.48M | -13.2% |
| Tract 360001 | $1.56M | $1.16M | -25.1% |
| Tract 720007 | $2.72M | $1.97M | -27.6% |
| Tract 520003 | $1.67M | $1.19M | -28.9% |
| Tract 840000 | $2.71M | $1.89M | -30.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 520003 | $1.67M | $1.19M | $996K |
| Tract 080006 | $2.70M | $1.80M | $1.06M |
| Tract 360001 | $1.56M | $1.16M | $1.21M |
| Tract 680008 | $1.70M | $1.48M | $1.26M |
| Tract 720007 | $2.72M | $1.97M | $1.41M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources