Orange County, CA · ZIP 92861 · Census Tract 06059075810 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.62M
Downside (P10)
$1.43M
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.74M
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.17M
+34% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +34%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar Orange County markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $912K | $964K | $991K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.7M |
| YoY Change | +5.7% | +2.8% | +7.2% | +1.4% | -0.6% | +2.9% | +9.0% | +6.5% | +25.3% | -0.0% | +1.1% | +3.6% | -0.9% | +4.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.4M | $1.4M | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.8M | $1.9M | $2.0M | $2.2M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.51M to $1.71M
12.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.43M to $2.17M
42.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Coast | $1.63M | $1.74M | +7.0% |
| Huntington Beach | $1.63M | $1.75M | +7.6% |
| San Clemente | $1.60M | $1.70M | +5.9% |
| North Coast | $1.65M | $1.83M | +10.7% |
| Irvine | $1.58M | $1.72M | +8.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Ana | $676K | $849K | +25.6% |
| Santa Ana | $720K | $886K | +23.1% |
| Anaheim | $660K | $803K | +21.7% |
| Seal Beach | $1.43M | $1.74M | +21.3% |
| Santa Ana | $724K | $878K | +21.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Ana | $122K | $136K | $73K |
| Santa Ana | $144K | $168K | $81K |
| Anaheim-Santa Ana-Garden Grove | $115K | $128K | $84K |
| Santa Ana | $184K | $205K | $108K |
| Seal Beach | $316K | $337K | $122K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources