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Phoenix, AZ · ZIP 85284 · Census Tract 04013810000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$605K
Downside (P10)
$519K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$640K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$768K
+27% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +27%. The model forecasts this with 79% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $304K | $322K | $347K | $354K | $361K | $414K | $429K | $522K | $569K | $598K | $605K | $630K | $635K | $640K |
| YoY Change | +6.0% | +7.5% | +2.1% | +1.8% | +14.8% | +3.6% | +21.8% | +8.9% | +5.2% | +1.2% | +4.1% | +0.9% | +0.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $548K | $533K | $519K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $732K | $748K | $768K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$548K to $732K
29.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$519K to $768K
38.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
No comparable areas found for this neighborhood. This usually happens when only a small number of tracts in the county have forecast coverage.
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.