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Phoenix, AZ · ZIP 85253 · Census Tract 04013105004 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.99M
Downside (P10)
$1.65M
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.05M
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.53M
+27% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +27%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.2M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.6M | $1.8M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.1M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.1M |
| YoY Change | +30.8% | -0.8% | +5.5% | +0.0% | -7.6% | +15.2% | +11.9% | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.7% | +3.4% | -0.8% | +0.5% | +0.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.7M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.8M | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $2.3M | $2.5M | $2.5M | $2.3M |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$1.71M to $2.33M
30.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.84M to $2.31M
22.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradise Valley | $1.98M | $2.05M | +3.6% | |
| Paradise Valley (Tract 105002) | $2.05M | $2.21M | +7.9% | |
| Paradise Valley (Tract 105003) | $2.06M | $2.18M | +5.7% | |
| Paradise Valley (Tract 105103) | $2.06M | $2.17M | +5.4% | |
| Arcadia | $2.01M | $2.03M | +1.2% | |
| Tonto National Forest | $1.79M | $1.73M | -3.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradise Valley | $1.98M | $2.05M | +3.6% | |
| Tempe | $434K | $543K | +25.1% | |
| Papago | $218K | $268K | +23.0% | |
| South Mountain | $295K | $359K | +21.8% | |
| Scottsdale | $548K | $666K | +21.5% | |
| Downtown Phoenix | $361K | $436K | +20.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradise Valley | $1.98M | $2.05M | $881K | |
| Mesa (Tract 420708) | $57K | $63K | $30K | |
| Mesa (Tract 422659) | $64K | $71K | $28K | |
| Peoria | $58K | $63K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.