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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Phoenix, AZ · ZIP 85023 · Census Tract 04013103612 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$540K
Downside (P10)
$402K
-26% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$543K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$818K
+51% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -26% to +51%. The model forecasts this with 58% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $287K | $319K | $328K | $329K | $340K | $346K | $411K | $432K | $486K | $540K | $540K | $549K | $555K | $543K | $568K |
| YoY Change | +11.0% | +2.9% | +0.1% | +3.4% | +1.9% | +18.6% | +5.2% | +12.5% | +11.2% | +0.0% | +1.7% | +1.1% | -2.1% | +4.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $435K | $431K | $402K | $503K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $702K | $765K | $818K | $655K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$435K to $702K
48.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$503K to $655K
26.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moon Valley | $551K | $543K | -1.3% | |
| Desert Ridge (Tract 614900) | $542K | $615K | +13.4% | |
| Desert Ridge (Tract 617200) | $540K | $578K | +6.9% | |
| Peoria | $541K | $579K | +6.9% | |
| Surprise | $538K | $559K | +3.8% | |
| Gilbert | $539K | $540K | +0.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moon Valley | $551K | $543K | -1.3% | |
| Tempe | $434K | $543K | +25.1% | |
| Papago | $218K | $268K | +23.0% | |
| South Mountain | $295K | $359K | +21.8% | |
| Scottsdale | $548K | $666K | +21.5% | |
| Downtown Phoenix | $361K | $436K | +20.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moon Valley | $551K | $543K | $416K | |
| Mesa (Tract 420708) | $57K | $63K | $30K | |
| Mesa (Tract 422659) | $64K | $71K | $28K | |
| Peoria | $58K | $63K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.