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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Phoenix, AZ · ZIP 85028 · Census Tract 04013103208 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$540K
Downside (P10)
$461K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$556K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$770K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $293K | $311K | $325K | $331K | $337K | $359K | $374K | $440K | $485K | $530K | $540K | $557K | $561K | $556K |
| YoY Change | +6.1% | +4.4% | +1.8% | +2.1% | +6.4% | +4.1% | +17.7% | +10.3% | +9.3% | +1.9% | +3.2% | +0.7% | -0.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $495K | $472K | $461K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $720K | $725K | $770K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$495K to $720K
40.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$461K to $770K
55.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradise Valley | $544K | $556K | +2.3% | |
| Desert Ridge (Tract 614900) | $542K | $615K | +13.4% | |
| Desert Ridge (Tract 617200) | $540K | $578K | +6.9% | |
| Peoria | $541K | $579K | +6.9% | |
| Surprise | $538K | $559K | +3.8% | |
| Gilbert | $539K | $540K | +0.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradise Valley | $544K | $556K | +2.3% | |
| Tempe | $434K | $543K | +25.1% | |
| Papago | $218K | $268K | +23.0% | |
| South Mountain | $295K | $359K | +21.8% | |
| Scottsdale | $548K | $666K | +21.5% | |
| Downtown Phoenix | $361K | $436K | +20.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradise Valley | $544K | $556K | $309K | |
| Mesa (Tract 420708) | $57K | $63K | $30K | |
| Mesa (Tract 422659) | $64K | $71K | $28K | |
| Peoria | $58K | $63K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.