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Phoenix, AZ · ZIP 85041 · Census Tract 04013116614 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$367K
Downside (P10)
$307K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$381K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$501K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $202K | $223K | $263K | $289K | $357K | $367K | $371K | $375K | $381K |
| YoY Change | +9.9% | +18.1% | +10.1% | +23.3% | +2.9% | +1.2% | +1.1% | +1.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $307K | $323K | $307K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $444K | $492K | $501K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$307K to $444K
36.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$307K to $501K
51.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Mountain · 85041 · (Tract 1166.14) | $365K | $381K | +4.3% | |
| Deer Valley (Tract 104203) | $367K | $417K | +13.4% | |
| Deer Valley (Tract 104202) | $367K | $415K | +13.3% | |
| Glendale | $367K | $415K | +13.1% | |
| Papago | $367K | $411K | +12.0% | |
| Tempe | $367K | $398K | +8.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Mountain · 85041 · (Tract 1166.14) | $365K | $381K | +4.3% | |
| Tempe | $434K | $543K | +25.1% | |
| Papago | $218K | $268K | +23.0% | |
| South Mountain | $295K | $359K | +21.8% | |
| Scottsdale | $548K | $666K | +21.5% | |
| Downtown Phoenix | $361K | $436K | +20.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Mountain · 85041 · (Tract 1166.14) | $365K | $381K | $194K | |
| Mesa (Tract 420708) | $57K | $63K | $30K | |
| Mesa (Tract 422659) | $64K | $71K | $28K | |
| Peoria | $58K | $63K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.