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Phoenix, AZ · ZIP 85142 · Census Tract 04013817000 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$827K
Downside (P10)
$593K
-28% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$932K
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.28M
+55% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -28% to +55%. The model forecasts this with 59% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $383K | $403K | $426K | $433K | $436K | $441K | $548K | $631K | $694K | $801K | $827K | $844K | $902K | $932K |
| YoY Change | +5.3% | +5.6% | +1.8% | +0.6% | +1.1% | +24.4% | +15.1% | +10.0% | +15.5% | +3.2% | +2.0% | +6.9% | +3.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $702K | $644K | $593K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.0M | $1.2M | $1.3M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. Short-term confidence is moderate but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$702K to $1.04M
40.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$593K to $1.28M
74.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queen Creek · 85142 · (Tract 8170) | $820K | $932K | +13.6% | |
| Phoenix (Tract 103207) | $834K | $928K | +11.3% | |
| Phoenix (Tract 619900) | $827K | $918K | +11.0% | |
| Gilbert | $825K | $915K | +10.9% | |
| Camelback East | $824K | $902K | +9.5% | |
| Arcadia | $832K | $879K | +5.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queen Creek · 85142 · (Tract 8170) | $820K | $932K | +13.6% | |
| Tempe | $434K | $543K | +25.1% | |
| Papago | $218K | $268K | +23.0% | |
| South Mountain | $295K | $359K | +21.8% | |
| Scottsdale | $548K | $666K | +21.5% | |
| Downtown Phoenix | $361K | $436K | +20.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queen Creek · 85142 · (Tract 8170) | $820K | $932K | $690K | |
| Mesa (Tract 420708) | $57K | $63K | $30K | |
| Mesa (Tract 422659) | $64K | $71K | $28K | |
| Peoria | $58K | $63K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.