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Phoenix, AZ · ZIP 85085 · Census Tract 04013612402 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$644K
Downside (P10)
$538K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$682K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$850K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $431K | $439K | $509K | $596K | $630K | $644K | $655K | $659K | $682K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$212,393 | -$204,593 | -$135,093 | -$47,793 | -$14,093 | +$11,475 | +$14,877 | +$37,941 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -33.0% | -31.8% | -21.0% | -7.4% | -2.2% | +1.8% | +2.3% | +5.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $545K | $550K | $538K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $766K | $816K | $850K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$545K to $766K
33.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$538K to $850K
45.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goodyear (Tract 061064) | $628K | $700K | +11.6% | |
| Phoenix (Tract 071513) | $665K | $736K | +10.7% | |
| Goodyear (Tract 061056) | $661K | $722K | +9.3% | |
| Phoenix (Tract 061045) | $647K | $698K | +8.0% | |
| Wickenburg | $629K | $667K | +6.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goodyear | $290K | $347K | +19.6% | |
| Peoria (Tract 071915) | $261K | $310K | +18.6% | |
| Peoria (Tract 071911) | $355K | $419K | +18.2% | |
| Peoria (Tract 071910) | $310K | $365K | +17.8% | |
| Peoria (Tract 040537) | $761K | $896K | +17.7% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Phoenix, AZ · ZIP 85085 · Census Tract 04013612402 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$644K
Downside (P10)
$538K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$682K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$850K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $431K | $439K | $509K | $596K | $630K | $644K | $655K | $659K | $682K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$212,393 | -$204,593 | -$135,093 | -$47,793 | -$14,093 | +$11,475 | +$14,877 | +$37,941 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -33.0% | -31.8% | -21.0% | -7.4% | -2.2% | +1.8% | +2.3% | +5.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $545K | $550K | $538K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $766K | $816K | $850K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$545K to $766K
33.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$538K to $850K
45.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goodyear (Tract 061064) | $628K | $700K | +11.6% | |
| Phoenix (Tract 071513) | $665K | $736K | +10.7% | |
| Goodyear (Tract 061056) | $661K | $722K | +9.3% | |
| Phoenix (Tract 061045) | $647K | $698K | +8.0% | |
| Wickenburg | $629K | $667K | +6.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goodyear | $290K | $347K | +19.6% | |
| Peoria (Tract 071915) | $261K | $310K | +18.6% | |
| Peoria (Tract 071911) | $355K | $419K | +18.2% | |
| Peoria (Tract 071910) | $310K | $365K | +17.8% | |
| Peoria (Tract 040537) | $761K | $896K | +17.7% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
