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Phoenix, AZ · ZIP 85204 · Census Tract 04013422503 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$425K
Downside (P10)
$388K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$477K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$628K
+48% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $121K | $144K | $165K | $185K | $225K | $229K | $254K | $302K | $303K | $414K | $425K | $440K | $461K | $477K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$304,635 | -$281,535 | -$260,235 | -$240,635 | -$200,535 | -$196,835 | -$171,035 | -$123,335 | -$122,835 | -$11,135 | +$14,303 | +$35,902 | +$51,888 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -71.6% | -66.2% | -61.2% | -56.6% | -47.1% | -46.3% | -40.2% | -29.0% | -28.9% | -2.6% | +3.4% | +8.4% | +12.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $357K | $384K | $388K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $536K | $582K | $628K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$357K to $536K
40.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$388K to $628K
50.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surprise (Tract 061034) | $430K | $489K | +13.8% | |
| Buckeye | $422K | $477K | +13.0% | |
| Sun City West (Tract 040512) | $430K | $478K | +11.1% | |
| Surprise (Tract 061061) | $430K | $475K | +10.5% | |
| Sun City West (Tract 040522) | $430K | $439K | +2.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goodyear | $290K | $347K | +19.6% | |
| Peoria (Tract 071915) | $261K | $310K | +18.6% | |
| Peoria (Tract 071911) | $355K | $419K | +18.2% | |
| Peoria (Tract 071910) | $310K | $365K | +17.8% | |
| Peoria (Tract 040537) | $761K | $896K | +17.7% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Phoenix, AZ · ZIP 85204 · Census Tract 04013422503 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$425K
Downside (P10)
$388K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$477K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$628K
+48% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $121K | $144K | $165K | $185K | $225K | $229K | $254K | $302K | $303K | $414K | $425K | $440K | $461K | $477K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$304,635 | -$281,535 | -$260,235 | -$240,635 | -$200,535 | -$196,835 | -$171,035 | -$123,335 | -$122,835 | -$11,135 | +$14,303 | +$35,902 | +$51,888 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -71.6% | -66.2% | -61.2% | -56.6% | -47.1% | -46.3% | -40.2% | -29.0% | -28.9% | -2.6% | +3.4% | +8.4% | +12.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $357K | $384K | $388K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $536K | $582K | $628K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$357K to $536K
40.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$388K to $628K
50.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surprise (Tract 061034) | $430K | $489K | +13.8% | |
| Buckeye | $422K | $477K | +13.0% | |
| Sun City West (Tract 040512) | $430K | $478K | +11.1% | |
| Surprise (Tract 061061) | $430K | $475K | +10.5% | |
| Sun City West (Tract 040522) | $430K | $439K | +2.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goodyear | $290K | $347K | +19.6% | |
| Peoria (Tract 071915) | $261K | $310K | +18.6% | |
| Peoria (Tract 071911) | $355K | $419K | +18.2% | |
| Peoria (Tract 071910) | $310K | $365K | +17.8% | |
| Peoria (Tract 040537) | $761K | $896K | +17.7% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
