Loading forecast data...
Ready to see your forecast?
Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Loading forecast data...
Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Phoenix, AZ · ZIP 85086 · Census Tract 04013610400 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$545K
Downside (P10)
$428K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$590K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$768K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $196K | $225K | $261K | $270K | $295K | $322K | $357K | $426K | $482K | $537K | $545K | $555K | $567K | $590K |
| YoY Change | +14.8% | +15.8% | +3.5% | +9.1% | +9.4% | +10.7% | +19.3% | +13.3% | +11.3% | +1.6% | +1.9% | +2.1% | +4.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $463K | $462K | $428K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $684K | $708K | $768K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$463K to $684K
39.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$428K to $768K
57.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthem · Phoenix · (Tract 6104) | $543K | $590K | +8.7% | |
| Phoenix (Tract 610600) | $547K | $625K | +14.4% | |
| Gilbert | $545K | $598K | +9.8% | |
| Phoenix (Tract 612600) | $547K | $593K | +8.5% | |
| Chandler | $547K | $592K | +8.2% | |
| Paradise Valley | $545K | $583K | +7.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthem · Phoenix · (Tract 6104) | $543K | $590K | +8.7% | |
| Tempe | $434K | $543K | +25.1% | |
| Papago | $218K | $268K | +23.0% | |
| South Mountain | $295K | $359K | +21.8% | |
| Scottsdale | $548K | $666K | +21.5% | |
| Downtown Phoenix | $361K | $436K | +20.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthem · Phoenix · (Tract 6104) | $543K | $590K | $340K | |
| Mesa (Tract 420708) | $57K | $63K | $30K | |
| Mesa (Tract 422659) | $64K | $71K | $28K | |
| Peoria | $58K | $63K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.