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Phoenix, AZ · ZIP 85040 · Census Tract 04013116100 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$369K
Downside (P10)
$303K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$397K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$559K
+51% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +51%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $85K | $90K | $105K | $111K | $178K | $220K | $228K | $295K | $328K | $363K | $369K | $380K | $396K | $397K |
| YoY Change | +5.8% | +16.8% | +5.6% | +60.5% | +23.7% | +3.2% | +29.6% | +11.1% | +10.7% | +1.7% | +3.0% | +4.2% | +0.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $304K | $311K | $303K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $459K | $499K | $559K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$304K to $459K
40.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$303K to $559K
64.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahwatukee East · 85040 · (Tract 1161) | $358K | $397K | +10.7% | |
| Tempe | $369K | $422K | +14.2% | |
| Glendale | $368K | $407K | +10.7% | |
| Scottsdale | $370K | $394K | +6.5% | |
| Deer Valley | $368K | $380K | +3.3% | |
| Sun City West | $370K | $365K | -1.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahwatukee East · 85040 · (Tract 1161) | $358K | $397K | +10.7% | |
| Tempe | $434K | $543K | +25.1% | |
| Papago | $218K | $268K | +23.0% | |
| South Mountain | $295K | $359K | +21.8% | |
| Scottsdale | $548K | $666K | +21.5% | |
| Downtown Phoenix | $361K | $436K | +20.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahwatukee East · 85040 · (Tract 1161) | $358K | $397K | $256K | |
| Mesa (Tract 420708) | $57K | $63K | $30K | |
| Mesa (Tract 422659) | $64K | $71K | $28K | |
| Peoria | $58K | $63K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.