County 04830, AZ · Census Tract 04830700628 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$445K
Downside (P10)
$307K
-31% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$502K
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$898K
+102% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -31% to +102%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 04830 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $445K | $460K | $462K | $466K | $502K |
| YoY Change | +3.4% | +0.6% | +0.8% | +7.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $317K | $289K | $297K | $307K | |
| Upside (P90) | $621K | $718K | $784K | $898K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$376K to $532K
34.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$307K to $898K
117.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 080005 | $447K | $527K | +17.8% |
| Tract 700424 | $442K | $463K | +4.7% |
| Tract 700440 | $453K | $481K | +6.3% |
| Tract 700288 | $453K | $508K | +12.2% |
| Tract 700505 | $459K | $485K | +5.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 080005 | $447K | $527K | +17.8% |
| Tract 160006 | $515K | $588K | +14.2% |
| Tract 240007 | $525K | $594K | +13.0% |
| Tract 700288 | $453K | $508K | +12.2% |
| Tract 700084 | $513K | $571K | +11.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 700505 | $459K | $485K | $498K |
| Tract 700440 | $453K | $481K | $552K |
| Tract 700547 | $463K | $487K | $554K |
| Tract 700084 | $513K | $571K | $603K |
| Tract 700424 | $442K | $463K | $606K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources