County 04830, AZ · Census Tract 04830700424 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$442K
Downside (P10)
$226K
-49% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$463K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$833K
+88% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -49% to +88%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 04830 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $442K | $468K | $457K | $437K | $463K |
| YoY Change | +5.9% | -2.4% | -4.4% | +6.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $344K | $271K | $219K | $226K | |
| Upside (P90) | $645K | $742K | $776K | $833K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$370K to $567K
44.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$226K to $833K
130.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 700628 | $445K | $502K | +12.9% |
| Tract 080005 | $447K | $527K | +17.8% |
| Tract 700440 | $453K | $481K | +6.3% |
| Tract 700288 | $453K | $508K | +12.2% |
| Tract 700505 | $459K | $485K | +5.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 080005 | $447K | $527K | +17.8% |
| Tract 160006 | $515K | $588K | +14.2% |
| Tract 240007 | $525K | $594K | +13.0% |
| Tract 700628 | $445K | $502K | +12.9% |
| Tract 700288 | $453K | $508K | +12.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 700505 | $459K | $485K | $498K |
| Tract 700440 | $453K | $481K | $552K |
| Tract 700547 | $463K | $487K | $554K |
| Tract 700628 | $445K | $502K | $592K |
| Tract 700084 | $513K | $571K | $603K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources