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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Phoenix, AZ · ZIP 85254 · Census Tract 04013103209 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$921K
Downside (P10)
$814K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$967K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.32M
+44% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $604K | $616K | $611K | $634K | $597K | $633K | $685K | $810K | $884K | $902K | $921K | $940K | $960K | $967K |
| YoY Change | +2.0% | -0.7% | +3.7% | -5.9% | +6.0% | +8.3% | +18.2% | +9.2% | +2.1% | +2.1% | +2.1% | +2.1% | +0.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $777K | $787K | $814K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.3M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$777K to $1.12M
36.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$814K to $1.32M
52.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix | $927K | $967K | +4.3% | |
| Arcadia (Tract 108301) | $915K | $983K | +7.5% | |
| Desert Ridge | $914K | $978K | +7.0% | |
| Arcadia (Tract 108100) | $914K | $972K | +6.4% | |
| Chandler | $919K | $946K | +3.0% | |
| Paradise Valley | $931K | $954K | +2.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix | $927K | $967K | +4.3% | |
| Tempe | $434K | $543K | +25.1% | |
| Papago | $218K | $268K | +23.0% | |
| South Mountain | $295K | $359K | +21.8% | |
| Scottsdale | $548K | $666K | +21.5% | |
| Downtown Phoenix | $361K | $436K | +20.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix | $927K | $967K | $511K | |
| Mesa (Tract 420708) | $57K | $63K | $30K | |
| Mesa (Tract 422659) | $64K | $71K | $28K | |
| Peoria | $58K | $63K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.