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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Coconino, AZ · ZIP 86004 · Census Tract 04005000500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$294K
Downside (P10)
$252K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$296K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$374K
+27% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +27%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $161K | $161K | $194K | $199K | $220K | $229K | $243K | $284K | $261K | $286K | $294K | $299K | $292K | $296K |
| YoY Change | +0.4% | +20.5% | +2.2% | +10.6% | +4.4% | +6.0% | +16.8% | -7.8% | +9.2% | +3.1% | +1.5% | -2.4% | +1.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $257K | $254K | $252K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $330K | $360K | $374K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$257K to $330K
24.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$252K to $374K
41.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flagstaff | $290K | $296K | +2.1% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000302) | $394K | $458K | +16.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 001103) | $342K | $391K | +14.4% | |
| Tuba City | $325K | $362K | +11.4% | |
| Williams | $194K | $215K | +10.8% | |
| Kaibab Plateau | $251K | $254K | +1.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flagstaff | $290K | $296K | +2.1% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 001101) | $614K | $744K | +21.0% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000302) | $394K | $458K | +16.2% | |
| Tuba City | $57K | $66K | +16.2% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000601) | $692K | $800K | +15.7% | |
| Flagstaff (Tract 000901) | $681K | $781K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flagstaff | $290K | $296K | $122K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 942201) | $81K | $86K | $42K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 942202) | $57K | $66K | $39K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 944900) | $89K | $98K | $38K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 945000) | $53K | $58K | $36K | |
| Tuba City (Tract 945100) | $62K | $70K | $30K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.