What is the home price forecast for Parcel 04005000302 in Flagstaff · 86004 · (Tract 3.2)?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $395,917 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 15.7%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 04005000302 in Flagstaff · 86004 · (Tract 3.2)?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $395,917 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 15.7%.

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Parcel 04005000302 (Flagstaff) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 04005000302, Flagstaff · 86004 · (Tract 3.2) Home Price Forecast

Coconino, AZ · ZIP 86004 · Census Tract 04005000302 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$396K

Downside (P10)

$342K

-14% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$458K

+16% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$594K

+50% by 2030

Base case: +16% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$174K	$222K	$261K	$313K	$384K	$396K	$414K	$443K	$458K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$221,617	-$174,217	-$134,817	-$83,317	-$11,817		+$17,837	+$46,654	+$62,051
Growth % vs 2026	-56.0%	-44.0%	-34.1%	-21.0%	-3.0%		+4.5%	+11.8%	+15.7%
Downside (P10)							$352K	$346K	$342K
Upside (P90)							$506K	$544K	$594K

Forecast Confidence

70%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.

Near-term band

$352K to $506K

37.4% of median

Long-horizon band

$342K to $594K

55.0% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +15.7% · Spread: 55%

·The forecast implies steady near-term growth accelerating over the longer horizon.
·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 04005000302, Flagstaff · 86004 · (Tract 3.2) on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).