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Cochise, AZ · ZIP 85643 · Census Tract 04003000202 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$157K
Downside (P10)
$132K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$168K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$227K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $95K | $94K | $90K | $78K | $72K | $74K | $85K | $113K | $133K | $154K | $157K | $156K | $167K | $168K |
| YoY Change | -1.5% | -3.8% | -14.0% | -7.2% | +2.2% | +16.1% | +32.6% | +17.6% | +15.6% | +2.0% | -0.3% | +6.8% | +0.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $134K | $135K | $132K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $199K | $218K | $227K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$134K to $199K
41.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$132K to $227K
56.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willcox · 85643 · (Tract 2.2) | $155K | $168K | +8.2% | |
| Sierra Vista (Tract 001501) | $157K | $160K | +2.0% | |
| Bisbee | $156K | $163K | +4.3% | |
| Sierra Vista (Tract 001502) | $158K | $158K | -0.1% | |
| Douglas (Tract 000800) | $159K | $160K | +1.1% | |
| Douglas (Tract 000901) | $161K | $171K | +6.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willcox · 85643 · (Tract 2.2) | $155K | $168K | +8.2% | |
| Elfrida (Tract 000503) | $243K | $281K | +15.7% | |
| Bisbee | $370K | $425K | +14.9% | |
| Elfrida (Tract 000501) | $244K | $278K | +13.8% | |
| Sierra Vista | $315K | $358K | +13.7% | |
| Benson | $222K | $250K | +12.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willcox · 85643 · (Tract 2.2) | $155K | $168K | $94K | |
| Bowie (Tract 000101) | $53K | $56K | $37K | |
| Douglas (Tract 000902) | $104K | $110K | $48K | |
| Bowie (Tract 000102) | $79K | $84K | $49K | |
| Douglas (Tract 000600) | $101K | $107K | $61K | |
| Elfrida | $131K | $134K | $76K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.