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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Sebastian, AR · ZIP 72905 · Census Tract 05131010201 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$191K
Downside (P10)
$162K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$198K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$266K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $137K | $131K | $120K | $119K | $120K | $116K | $123K | $159K | $181K | $185K | $191K | $188K | $195K | $198K |
| YoY Change | -4.2% | -8.8% | -0.8% | +1.0% | -2.8% | +5.6% | +29.5% | +13.4% | +2.5% | +2.9% | -1.2% | +3.5% | +1.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $170K | $165K | $162K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $225K | $249K | $266K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$170K to $225K
29.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$162K to $266K
52.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 area | $189K | $198K | +4.5% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001102) | $207K | $255K | +22.8% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001002) | $205K | $227K | +10.5% | |
| 2 | $181K | $195K | +7.6% | |
| 3 area | $194K | $209K | +7.4% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001312) | $205K | $214K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 area | $189K | $198K | +4.5% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001102) | $207K | $255K | +22.8% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001309) | $160K | $190K | +18.7% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000800) | $136K | $161K | +18.4% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001307) | $278K | $320K | +15.0% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001310) | $161K | $180K | +12.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 area | $189K | $198K | $104K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000501) | $106K | $114K | $52K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000100) | $108K | $114K | $51K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000200) | $97K | $107K | $49K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000300) | $84K | $90K | $47K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000400) | $67K | $73K | $38K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.