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Sebastian, AR · ZIP 72904 · Census Tract 05131000501 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$106K
Downside (P10)
$98K
-8% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$114K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$150K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -8% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $66K | $65K | $67K | $68K | $71K | $74K | $79K | $96K | $112K | $104K | $106K | $111K | $116K | $114K | $108K |
| YoY Change | -1.4% | +2.8% | +2.6% | +3.4% | +5.4% | +6.0% | +21.4% | +16.7% | -6.8% | +2.0% | +4.1% | +5.3% | -2.5% | -5.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $97K | $97K | $98K | $95K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $120K | $140K | $150K | $123K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$97K to $120K
20.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$95K to $123K
26.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Smith · 72904 · (Tract 5.1) | $106K | $114K | +7.6% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000200) | $97K | $107K | +9.9% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001202) | $97K | $106K | +9.0% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001001) | $109K | $119K | +8.9% | |
| 3 | $128K | $137K | +7.1% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000100) | $108K | $114K | +5.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Smith · 72904 · (Tract 5.1) | $106K | $114K | +7.6% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001102) | $207K | $255K | +22.8% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001309) | $160K | $190K | +18.7% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000800) | $136K | $161K | +18.4% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001307) | $278K | $320K | +15.0% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001310) | $161K | $180K | +12.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Smith · 72904 · (Tract 5.1) | $106K | $114K | $52K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001202) | $97K | $106K | $61K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000100) | $108K | $114K | $51K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000200) | $97K | $107K | $49K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000300) | $84K | $90K | $47K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000400) | $67K | $73K | $38K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.