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Sebastian, AR · ZIP 72916 · Census Tract 05131001311 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$333K
Downside (P10)
$284K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$356K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$514K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $243K | $244K | $280K | $295K | $311K | $333K | $337K | $346K | $356K | $326K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$90,293 | -$88,893 | -$53,493 | -$37,993 | -$21,693 | +$3,532 | +$13,153 | +$23,405 | -$7,564 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -27.1% | -26.7% | -16.1% | -11.4% | -6.5% | +1.1% | +3.9% | +7.0% | -2.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $285K | $293K | $284K | $283K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $430K | $462K | $514K | $366K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$285K to $430K
43.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$283K to $366K
25.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Smith area | $320K | $356K | +11.3% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001307) | $278K | $320K | +15.0% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001301) | $301K | $334K | +11.0% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001101) | $252K | $279K | +10.8% | |
| 4 area | $290K | $301K | +3.8% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001305) | $260K | $265K | +2.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Smith area | $320K | $356K | +11.3% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001102) | $207K | $255K | +22.8% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001309) | $160K | $190K | +18.7% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000800) | $136K | $161K | +18.4% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001307) | $278K | $320K | +15.0% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001310) | $161K | $180K | +12.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Smith area | $320K | $356K | $230K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000501) | $106K | $114K | $52K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000100) | $108K | $114K | $51K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000200) | $97K | $107K | $49K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000300) | $84K | $90K | $47K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000400) | $67K | $73K | $38K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Sebastian, AR · ZIP 72916 · Census Tract 05131001311 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$333K
Downside (P10)
$284K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$356K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$514K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $243K | $244K | $280K | $295K | $311K | $333K | $337K | $346K | $356K | $326K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$90,293 | -$88,893 | -$53,493 | -$37,993 | -$21,693 | +$3,532 | +$13,153 | +$23,405 | -$7,564 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -27.1% | -26.7% | -16.1% | -11.4% | -6.5% | +1.1% | +3.9% | +7.0% | -2.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $285K | $293K | $284K | $283K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $430K | $462K | $514K | $366K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$285K to $430K
43.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$283K to $366K
25.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Smith area | $320K | $356K | +11.3% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001307) | $278K | $320K | +15.0% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001301) | $301K | $334K | +11.0% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001101) | $252K | $279K | +10.8% | |
| 4 area | $290K | $301K | +3.8% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001305) | $260K | $265K | +2.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Smith area | $320K | $356K | +11.3% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001102) | $207K | $255K | +22.8% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001309) | $160K | $190K | +18.7% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000800) | $136K | $161K | +18.4% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001307) | $278K | $320K | +15.0% | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 001310) | $161K | $180K | +12.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Smith area | $320K | $356K | $230K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000501) | $106K | $114K | $52K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000100) | $108K | $114K | $51K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000200) | $97K | $107K | $49K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000300) | $84K | $90K | $47K | |
| Fort Smith (Tract 000400) | $67K | $73K | $38K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
