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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Garland, AR · ZIP 71909 · Census Tract 05051012002 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$189K
Downside (P10)
$153K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$196K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$269K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $163K | $152K | $152K | $150K | $149K | $147K | $152K | $167K | $174K | $187K | $189K | $192K | $194K | $196K |
| YoY Change | -6.6% | +0.2% | -1.7% | -0.5% | -1.5% | +3.8% | +9.4% | +4.6% | +7.5% | +1.2% | +1.1% | +1.3% | +1.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $162K | $159K | $153K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $230K | $249K | $269K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$162K to $230K
35.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$153K to $269K
58.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot Springs Village | $189K | $196K | +3.8% | |
| Hot Springs (Tract 011801) | $211K | $234K | +10.7% | |
| Hale (Tract 011101) | $171K | $183K | +7.0% | |
| Hale (Tract 012001) | $216K | $228K | +5.6% | |
| Hot Springs (Tract 011701) | $169K | $178K | +5.1% | |
| Piney | $158K | $163K | +3.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot Springs Village | $189K | $196K | +3.8% | |
| Hot Springs (Tract 011400) | $115K | $129K | +12.7% | |
| Hot Springs (Tract 011801) | $211K | $234K | +10.7% | |
| Piney | $105K | $116K | +10.7% | |
| Hot Springs (Tract 010601) | $153K | $169K | +10.6% | |
| Hot Springs (Tract 011802) | $265K | $293K | +10.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot Springs Village | $189K | $196K | $116K | |
| Hot Springs (Tract 011500) | $116K | $120K | $67K | |
| Piney | $105K | $116K | $64K | |
| Hot Springs (Tract 010602) | $81K | $89K | $50K | |
| Hale | $68K | $72K | $44K | |
| Hot Springs (Tract 011702) | $96K | $104K | $35K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.